Stock Probability Desk

See the price distribution the options market is pricing in

Pick a ticker and an expiry. The curve is the risk-neutral distribution of where that price finishes, backed out of listed option prices. It is what the market is charging for, not a forecast of what will happen.

The height of the curve is a probability density: the area over a price range is the implied probability the stock lands there. These are risk-neutral, market-implied probabilities. They are not real-world odds, not a prediction, and not investment advice.

Loading NVDA option chain

Fetching delayed Yahoo Finance quotes and the listed expiries. This usually takes a second.

Methodology and limits

The density is the Breeden–Litzenberger result: the discounted second derivative of the call price with respect to strike. The raw smile is smoothed first, with Gatheral's SVI curve by default or a capped smoothing spline when you want the fit to be able to show two peaks. Equity options are American, so put-call parity is an approximation and very wide markets are flagged as low confidence.

Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation to buy or sell. A high implied probability is the price of insurance in the options market, not the chance you should assign in the real world. Data is delayed and unofficial. When the market is closed, or when quotes are old or internally inconsistent, the chart says so instead of drawing a curve it cannot trust.

Pricing

The tool above is free. Pro is a test price for features that are not built yet. Upgrade does not open a checkout and does not charge a card.

Free
US$0

The current desk. No account.

  • Implied density and cumulative probability for any listed US stock or ETF
  • SVI and flexible smile, expiry comparison, and a confidence flag
  • Search by ticker or company name
Pro
US$9/month

A test price. Billing is not connected.

  • A saved list of tickers, kept on this device and ready when you come back
  • Snapshots of a distribution over time, so you can see how the market's view moved
  • CSV export of the density and the summary stats
  • Email alerts when the implied probability of a price level crosses a threshold you set